Neither An Alarmist Nor a Denier Be…

I’m exhausted.

Today another climate death report showed up in my LinkedIn feed, this time from the Himalayas. 200 climate scientists predicted that if we do nothing to curb our emissions, we’ll lose 2/3 of the Himalayan ice by 2100. Of course, the report also said that if we aggressively cut our global emissions (and by implication, spend trillions doing so), we’ll still lose 1/3 of the Himalayan ice. In other words, billions of people are doomed no matter what we do.

Sigh. I’m just plain exhausted. Aren’t we all exhausted by this?

Here’s a joke I heard the other day:

Question: how many scientists does it take to prove gravity?

Answer: One. Everyone else just confirms what the first one proved.

Question: how many climate scientists does it take to prove manmade global warming?

Answer: Thousands. Because they can’t. But that doesn’t keep us from pretending they can.

OK, so it’s not a very good joke, but it illustrates a point. Aren’t we tired of the doom-and-gloom predictions about our planet? Aren’t we just plain tired of it all? I am.

In my work as a professor and entrepreneur I’ve developed and used dozens of predictive models, maybe hundreds. When I’ve used them for solar farms they were for underwriting financial transactions, and the unknowns were accepted. When I’ve developed them for my own startups and presented them to both investors and my Cal Poly students, I’ve prefaced them with the tongue-in-cheek phrase “welcome to the land of make believe”. (OK, so I’m a bit less snarky with potential investors).

Why? Because they’re speculative. They’re built to try and predict the future, so they’re by definition speculative. I tell my students “it has to be smart speculative,” but they are still conjecture. They are smart crystal balls trying to predict the future.

Trying to predict future earth consequences is like trying to predict earthquakes. As a California native, how many times have I been shocked awake by the latest temblor? I’ve lost count. So much for earthquake predictions. That stuff is for the birds. We’re lucky to get accurate information days after the earthquake.

I am neither a climate denier nor a climate alarmist. I believe that the earth’s temperatures have been rising and that we can prove it with actual temperature measurements. With thermometers. I believe that our CO2 levels have been rising and that we can prove it with actual measurements. I believe both of those things because science can actually prove them. Are there people who don’t believe either of those things, despite all the data? Sure, probably. Call them climate deniers if you want. Who cares? The earth is heating up, our CO2 levels are rising.

I believe that man has had some effect on both of those factors. Can we prove it with actual science? Nope. We can correlate it, mix it with melting ice, plug it into our computer models, hit enter, and spit out an answer. We can call it science, even though it’s a different kind of science. But even though scientists can’t prove it, I believe that we are affecting our climate. Is it 80%? Is it 5%? I have no idea, nor does anybody else. We are all just guessing.

Al Gore guessed when he said half of Greenland was melting and that it would put Manhattan underwater. Nice Hollywood effects, but pure fiction. Then Beijing flooded. Then San Francisco. Then Shanghai. Then Calcutta. All gone, glug glug glug.

We’re told we have until 2030 to save our planet, and if we don’t we’re in a death spiral. That’s 11 years from now. No matter what we do as a global community, we can’t reverse our temperatures in the next 11 years. Should I be building submarines for my children? Should we all?

I’m tired of trying to figure out who is a credible scientist and who isn’t. Is your PhD smarter than my PhD? Who knows? First the Himalayas are melting at an incredible rate. Then I read that they’re melting at a slower rate than predicted. Ugh. My head hurts.

I’m tired of being told the beach I’ve lived at for 25 years is actually about to flood my city, when I can’t see any difference at all. What’s wrong with me: why am I not seeing the danger?

I’m tired of politicians telling me that the climate debate is over, even though I’ve worked in renewable energy for 20 years and have never participated in any debate. Did someone hold a big climate science party without inviting me?

I’m tired of people prescribing one solution over the other, while still missing the prize. No, solarizing the world won’t get us there. In order to meet the temperature goals of all the reports, we need to invent and commercialize technologies that don’t exist yet. Why don’t we just say this?

I’m tired of everyone talking degrees Celsius while my thermometer says degrees Fahrenheit (Fine, there’s an app for that, I’ll get over it).

I’m tired of one group telling me I’m wrong because of the Koch Brothers, or Donald Trump, or evil climate denying Republicans; I’m tired of another group telling me I’m wrong because of Al Gore, and Davos, and Hollywood, and alarmist Democrats. They both seem to need lots of my money in order to fight the other.

I’m tired of it all.

I’m going to add the Himalayas to the list of global disasters about to happen. California’s been ready to break off from the rest of the country because of earthquakes for my whole life, so they’re in good company. I’ll add Manhattan, Beijing, Shanghai, Calcutta and the Netherlands to this list.

I’ll keep refining my climate death lexicon as well. Arctic blast. Polar vortex. Climate alarmist. Climate denier. Global sea rise. Climaccounting (I invented that one). Should I add Sharknado as well?

I’ve got 10 bucks in my wallet and it’s lunchtime. I’ve got to choose between food and saving the planet. Hmm…

I’m going with the club sandwich. Sorry, Earth.

Marc Cortez is a 20-year veteran of the solar energy and electric vehicle industries, and is the founder and CEO of Liquid8, a water conservation startup.